Job Cuts Spike 136% In January, Cooked Job Growth Numbers, Extended BRICS+ Bloc Meets in Moscow To Discuss Strategy

Weekly Recap For The Week Ending February 2, 2024 LENA PETROVA, CPA FEB 2 Domestic Events: The Federal Reserve kept fed funds rate unchanged and indicated that rate cuts as soon as March are unlikely. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve needs confidence that inflation declines before it makes the decision to cut rates. Following Jerome Powell’s press event, the probability of a rate cut increased to 60% and 52.6% in May and in June, respectively: Mortgage rates declined amid the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged. According to Freddie Mac, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.63% as of February 1st, while 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.94%. According to the Department of Labor, initial jobless claims rose more than expected: 224K vs. 213K expectation. This is due to a sharp increase in job cuts and layoffs, discussed below. Additionally, private sector employment rose less than expected: 107K actual vs. 145K consensus. This indicates the economy is cooling more than expected. In January, U.S. employers announced 83,307 job cuts, the most in 10 months, a sharp increase of 136% from 34,817 job cuts a month prior. The job cuts are due to increased input and material costs, as well as an expected decrease in consumer and business activity. Companies that announced layoffs are largely driven by the need to cut costs in an increasingly uncertain environment. Among the companies that announced layoffs are: PayPal - 9% Twitch - 35% Unity Software - 25% Discord - 17% Wayfair - 13% Brex - 20% Riot Games - 11% Duolingo - 10% Blackrock - 3% Plus, Citi Group, eBay, Google, Amazon and many more companies. POLL Do you believe we will see more job cuts in 2024? Yes No Other (leave a comment) Job growth report released on Friday, February 2nd, effectively cemented the fact that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates until after the first quarter. The U.S. economy added 355K jobs to nonfarm payrolls vs. +170K expected, according to the Department of Labor. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent. Further, the labor force participation rate is 62.5%, unchanged from December. The official report shows job gains were the strongest in: professional and business services - 74K health care - 70K retail trade - 45K social assistance - 30K Immediately after the release of the surprising data, claims of “victory” followed from Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US Chief Economist: and even President Biden himself used fancy infographic to illustrate the achievement: However, you don’t need to be an economist to see that the job growth data neither aligns with the surge in layoffs in January, nor does it make sense in the context of broader economic indicators. In fact, it makes zero sense and should be a true concern because it shows just how much real data is being manipulated. First, monthly jobs reports are always revised down later. Second, quarterly census program shows nearly 50% job growth downward revisions for the period of April through June 2023. This means the real job gains would be half the announced number at best. President Biden halted exports of new LNG to Asian and European allies due to concerns over climate change. The impacted projects are located in Texas and Louisiana. The timing of the ban coincided with Governor Greg Abbot refusing to comply with the Supreme Court ruling. Texas, joined by 25 U.S. states, moved forward with protecting its border against the waves of illegal immigration. I discussed the details of the move imposed by the Biden administration as well as its impact on Europe and top LNG exporters in a recent video. Watch it on Rumble or YouTube: Behind The Numbers With Lena Petrova, CPA © 2024 Lena Petrova

Biden Halts New LNG Exports, Home Sales Rise, Deceptively Strong GDP As National Debt Inches Closer To $34.2T Weekly Recap As Of Friday, January 26, 2024 LENA PETROVA, CPA JAN 27

According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates increased this week. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates averaged 6.69% as of January 25, while 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rates averaged 5.96%. Pending Home Sales Index increased 8.3% to 77.3 in December, vs. an increase of 1.5% consensus. The upward trend is consistent with National Association of Realtor’s outlook for 2024 that anticipates a 13% increase in home sales year over year, and a 1.3% increase in home prices in 2024. In order to prevent arbitrage (essentially free money to the banks) by the largest U.S. banks using the Fed’s emergency funding program, BTFP (discussed in this video), the Federal Reserve eliminated the arbitrage spread by raising the cost of borrowing under the program. Additionally, the Fed announced that BTFP will end as of March 11, 2024. During the fourth quarter of 2024, the emergency facility was effectively a source of free money. From the end of November 2023 to January 25, 2024, the total borrowed amount increased from $114 billion to $168 billion. This represents a $54 billion increase, or 47%. Upgrade to paid The U.S. national debt hit a new high - $34,135,530,482,291.88. The U.S. Treasury borrowed $47 billion on January 25th, increasing the debt to a new record high. Debt to GDP is up to 123%. National debt is growing at the rate of approximately $3 trillion per year. Interest payments on the national debt is now over $1 trillion: U.S. Gross Domestic Product rose at an annual rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023 vs. +2.0% consensus. Although GDP was stronger than expected, it declined compared to the third quarter (as of Q3 2023, GDP recorded an increase of 4.9%). The positive GDP numbers should be viewed in the context of the U.S. deficit. Without the exponentially increasing spending, the GDP would likely be in the negative territory. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, sales and employment growth expectations continue to decline: Further, the latest report shows that firms have less confidence in the future sales growth than they did prior to the pandemic: On Friday, the Biden Administration announced a pause on the approval of new licenses for plants to export U.S. liquefied natural gas. The Department of Energy will review the economic and environmental impacts of projects that seek new approval to export LNG to Asia and Europe. The review is expected to take months and will be followed by a public comment period. The shocking move comes as Governor Gregg Abbott refused the White House ultimatum to comply with the Supreme Court ruling and turn over the border patrol posts to the Federal Government. Followed by the “Red State Alliance” sending their National Guards to Eagle Pass to aid Texas protect its border, President Biden halted new LNG exports which is an obvious attempt to force Texas into submission. The move by the Biden Administration has multiple negative domestic and foreign consequences. The halted LNG projects happen to be in Texas, which will impact American workers. Europe is now in an increasingly difficult position too, as it refused to purchase Russian LNG and will now have to face higher energy costs, once again. Share The BRICS bloc is moving forward with its efforts to create an alternative financial system. The New Development Bank announced $28 billion bond issuance, denominated in local currencies. This signals to the world that the IMF and the World Bank now have a rival that is far more appealing to the developing nations. The details are discussed in a video available on YouTube and Rumble. As inflation inched higher, the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged, stating that rates “will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary”. The EU’s central bank reportedly requested European banks to monitor social media for early signs of bank runs. The details are discussed in a video available on YouTube and Rumble. Thank you for your continuous support and subscriptions! Enjoy your weekend! Lena Behind The Numbers With Lena Petrova, CPA is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. If you enjoy Behind The Numbers With Lena Petrova, CPA, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe. © 2024 Lena Petrova

The Push Back Against CBDCs Is Mounting In The United States

New bills are introduced to prevent the adoption of a central bank digital currency as legal form of tender LENA PETROVA, CPA JAN 21 As the European Union is going full steam towards the digital Euro, the United States appears to be less enthusiastic. While several acts of opposition might not change the final outcome, they certainly create roadblocks on the way of imposing a form of digital slavery that empowers the state... © 2024 Lena Petrova

Home Sales Fall To 1995 Levels

Office Vacancies Hit 19.6%, Biden Cancels $5B In Student Debt The Sick Man Of Europe Weekly Recap of Key Events LENA PETROVA, CPA JAN 19 Long term mortgage rates declined: 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.60%; while 15-year mortgage rate is 5.76%: Existing homes sales in the U.S. dropped 1.0% in December to 3.78 million vs. the forecast of 3.82 million, signaling a 6.2% decline in sales year over year. While the annual median sales price in 2023 reached a record high as the result of low inventories, the existing home sales hit the lowest level in 28 years: In December 2023, the median home sales price was $382,600, a 4.4% increase year over year: According to the latest (January 2024) Consumer Sentiment Index published by the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment exceeded expectations: 78.8 vs. 70.0 consensus. Consumer sentiment is now the highest it has been since mid 2021, reportedly due to “easing inflation expectations”. Surprisingly, the University of Michigan concludes that consumers’ personal finances have been improving: “For the second straight month, all five index components rose, with a 27% surge in the short-run outlook for business conditions and a 14% gain in current personal finances.” Additional details on the median wage, occupation and location of the surveyed individuals would have provided meaningful context. The reported “improvement” in consumer sentiment contradicts the latest (December 2023) CPI data that indicated an increase in inflation. Upgrade to paid Additionally, the University of Michigan’s report appears to contradict the fact that the level of financial distress in the United States has surpassed that of the Great Recession. I discussed the details of the surging household debt in a video, available on YouTube and Rumble. Analysts forecast commercial defaults to rise in the first quarter of 2024, peaking at 4.9%. These defaults are expected to be driven by companies with lower credit ratings. Regardless of credit ratings, the number of defaults in 2023 was the highest since the pandemic and this trend is likely to continue as tighter lending standards and higher borrowing costs continue to be challenging for businesses. U.S. office vacancy rate jumped to a record 19.6% as of December 31, 2023. The increase in commercial real estate vacancies is very bad news for the U.S. lenders since they hold $117 billion in real estate debt that is due in 2024. The top five cities with the highest office vacancies are: Detroit, MI: 25.7% Houston, TX: 25.4% San Francisco, CA: 24.2% Seattle, WA: 22.3% Austin, TX: 21.2% To learn more about how commercial real estate bubble will likely impact the U.S. banking system, watch this recent video: YouTube | Rumble. President Biden canceled additional $5 billion in student loans. Total student loans forgiven under the Biden administration total $136 billion. According to Bloomberg: “Polls show Biden’s support has weakened among Black, Hispanic and young voters who will be crucial to helping him secure a second term.” Share U.S. Congress voted in favor of a third, since October 1st, temporary spending bill to fund the government until March 1st. Sen. Chip Roy (R - Texas), said the quiet part out loud: “It's Groundhog Day in the House chamber all the time, every day, yet again spending money we don't have.” The Red Sea crisis is causing major delays in shipments (up to two weeks) and increased fears that it may impact global food supply and crude oil flows. I discussed the details in a recent video, available on YouTube and Rumble. In Davos, Germany’s finance minister Christian Lindner, referred to Germany as “the tired man of Europe”, apparently taking offense to the public now referring to Germany as “the sick man of Europe” as the country’s economic downward spiral continues and recovery is nowhere in sight. German farmers, who have been protesting against the government’s cuts of agricultural subsidies, did not appreciate the latest calls made by the Davos elite to raise taxes in order to fund the green energy transition amid forecasted economic contraction. Financial Times reports: “Economists at Deutsche Bank this week forecast Germany’s economy would decline again in the first three months of this year from the previous quarter, “followed by lacklustre positive quarterly growth rates from the second quarter onwards”. But they forecast Europe’s largest economy would still suffer an annual contraction of 0.2 per cent this year, compared to growth of 0.2 per cent in the eurozone overall.” Thanks for stopping by and for your continuous support of my work. Have a wonderful weekend! Behind The Numbers With Lena Petrova, CPA is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Upgrade to paid You're currently a free subscriber to Behind The Numbers With Lena Petrova, CPA. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. Upgrade to paid SHARE LIKE COMMENT RESTACK © 2024 Lena Petrova Unsubscribe Get the appStart writing