Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 01/30
FOMC & Jerome Powell's time!
Good evening!
Today, the broad market failed to follow through, and I received mixed feedback from my recent trades.
AMD, MSFT, and GOOGL reported earnings…and overall, it didn’t go well with -6% moves after-hours in AMD & GOOGL. Tomorrow's market opening should be volatile, with these earnings spreading in other tech & mega-caps names.
Later tomorrow, we have FOMC + Jerome Powell’s press conference…which should give more clues to the FED’s plan about cutting rates & the economy. Not that I trade or follow these events, but I accept & respect the risk & volatility they bring to the market. We often see strong moves on FOMC day, only to be reversed & faded the following day.
For that reason, I am standing at 10% exposure, and I don’t plan to keep new exposure tomorrow unless we see a power & breadth thrust move, and I can de-risk these new positions before the market closes.
Risk-first for me in these types of volatility-inducing events.
HAGN!
Alex ✌️
Tonight’s daily report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Daily Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
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PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
Key Takeaways:
Slightly down day with GDB at -230
Price still above all kma's.
MCSI followed through, but still below 10dma
5-day momo continues to trend down, as what appears to be a headwind for now
MT_momo hooked back down
Tomorrow is FOMC, and we'll likely have way more information on where this market will go. Stay tuned!
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
Today was an inside day, but MSFT GOOGL AMD earnings weighted on the major indices and we gapped down of the recent intraday range and now back below the wedge we broke out yesterday.
We are still above all kma’s…but tomorrow FOMC will be a key catalyst.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
NQ was hit harder because of these mega-caps weighting in the index. We are gapping down nearly 1% now, and it will be interesting to see the open and how we react to FOMC tomorrow.
We are just below the 8dma, but still above the 21dma and the 17165$ recent pivot.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
RTY could not follow through today, and we returned to retest the 2004$ level.
Tomorrow’s FOMC reaction will be a make or break of that range breakout and confirmation or not of that small-cap rotation.
The RTY/small-cap chart looks very constructive and shows a potential broadening of the market IF we have a good FOMC reaction and continue higher from here.
Market Internals...
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© 2024 Alex
548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104
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